Markets › Kalshi › Sports
College Football Coaches Out on Kalshi
If the head coach of the Houston college football team leaves, or announces they will leave, before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox News, Associated Press, NBC Sports, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, The Information, CBS, ESPN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, Politico, Bloomberg News.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 35 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
51% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.59 | 27.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabo Swinney out before Feb 1, 2027 · Dabo Swinney | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 11,500 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Kyle Whittingham out before Feb 1, 2027 · Kyle Whittingham | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 10,326 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Bill Belichick out before Feb 1, 2027 · Bill Belichick | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 7,666 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Lincoln Riley out before Feb 1, 2027 · Lincoln Riley | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 6,953 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Luke Fickell out before Feb 1, 2027 · Luke Fickell | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 4,706 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Curt Cignetti out before Feb 1, 2027 · Curt Cignetti | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 4,149 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Matt Campbell out before Feb 1, 2027 · Matt Campbell | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 3,820 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| James Franklin out before Feb 1, 2027 · James Franklin | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 2,873 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Mike Elko out before Feb 1, 2027 · Mike Elko | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 2,326 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Deion Sanders out before Feb 1, 2027 · Deion Sanders | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 1,764 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Lane Kiffin out before Feb 1, 2027 · Lane Kiffin | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 1,495 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Kalen DeBoer out before Feb 1, 2027 · Kalen DeBoer | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 1,407 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Kirby Smart out before Feb 1, 2027 · Kirby Smart | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 1,378 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Brent Venables out before Feb 1, 2027 · Brent Venables | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 1,364 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Matt Rhule out before Feb 1, 2027 · Matt Rhule | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,232 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Dan Lanning out before Feb 1, 2027 · Dan Lanning | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 1,011 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Marcus Freeman out before Feb 1, 2027 · Marcus Freeman | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 696 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Kalani Sitake out before Feb 1, 2027 · Kalani Sitake | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 651 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Jedd Fisch out before Feb 1, 2027 · Jedd Fisch | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 501 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Pete Golding out before Feb 1, 2027 · Pete Golding | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 376 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Kirk Ferentz out before Feb 1, 2027 · Kirk Ferentz | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 356 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Steve Sarkisian out before Feb 1, 2027 · Steve Sarkisian | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 340 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Ryan Day out before Feb 1, 2027 · Ryan Day | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 237 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Mario Cristobal out before Feb 1, 2027 · Mario Cristobal | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 98 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Josh Heupel out before Feb 1, 2027 · Josh Heupel | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 63 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Joey McGuire out before Feb 1, 2027 · Joey McGuire | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 52 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Dan Mullen out before Feb 1, 2027 · Dan Mullen | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 26 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Willie Fritz out before Feb 1, 2027 · Willie Fritz | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Scott Frost out before Feb 1, 2027 · Scott Frost | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Rich Rodriguez out before Feb 1, 2027 · Rich Rodriguez | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Rhett Lashlee out before Feb 1, 2027 · Rhett Lashlee | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Morgan Scalley out before Feb 1, 2027 · Morgan Scalley | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Jeff Brohm out before Feb 1, 2027 · Jeff Brohm | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Eli Drinkwitz out before Feb 1, 2027 · Eli Drinkwitz | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Bret Bielema out before Feb 1, 2027 · Bret Bielema | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.