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College Football Big 12 Championship Qualifiers on Kalshi
If West Virginia qualifies for the 2026 College Football Big 12 Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Oklahoma St. qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · Oklahoma St. | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 21,077 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will BYU qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · BYU | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 6,153 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Utah qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · Utah | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 4,121 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Texas Tech qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · Texas Tech | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 4,055 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colorado qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · Colorado | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,973 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · Arizona | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,752 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · Houston | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 1,574 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona St. qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · Arizona St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 935 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will West Virginia qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · West Virginia | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 767 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baylor qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · Baylor | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 738 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas St. qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · Kansas St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 519 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Iowa St. qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · Iowa St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 349 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · Kansas | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 244 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will UCF qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · UCF | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 154 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will TCU qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · TCU | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 154 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cincinnati qualify for the College Football Big 12 Championship Game? · Cincinnati | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 106 | Jan 10, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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