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College Football 4th Quarter Total on Kalshi
If the teams collectively score more than 7.5 points in the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Houston vs Colorado college football game originally scheduled for Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 33 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
96% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 4Q points scored · Over 7.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Over 5.5 4Q points scored · Over 5.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Over 2.5 4Q points scored · Over 2.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Over 27.5 4Q points scored · Over 27.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Over 23.5 4Q points scored · Over 23.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Over 20.5 4Q points scored · Over 20.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Over 19.5 4Q points scored · Over 19.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Over 16.5 4Q points scored · Over 16.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Over 13.5 4Q points scored · Over 13.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Over 12.5 4Q points scored · Over 12.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Over 10.5 4Q points scored · Over 10.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Over 7.5 4Q points scored · Over 7.5 points | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Over 5.5 4Q points scored · Over 5.5 points | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Over 2.5 4Q points scored · Over 2.5 points | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Over 27.5 4Q points scored · Over 27.5 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Over 23.5 4Q points scored · Over 23.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Over 20.5 4Q points scored · Over 20.5 points | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Over 19.5 4Q points scored · Over 19.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Over 16.5 4Q points scored · Over 16.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Over 13.5 4Q points scored · Over 13.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Over 12.5 4Q points scored · Over 12.5 points | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Over 10.5 4Q points scored · Over 10.5 points | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Over 7.5 4Q points scored · Over 7.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Over 5.5 4Q points scored · Over 5.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Over 2.5 4Q points scored · Over 2.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Over 27.5 4Q points scored · Over 27.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Over 23.5 4Q points scored · Over 23.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Over 20.5 4Q points scored · Over 20.5 points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Over 19.5 4Q points scored · Over 19.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Over 16.5 4Q points scored · Over 16.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Over 13.5 4Q points scored · Over 13.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Over 12.5 4Q points scored · Over 12.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Over 10.5 4Q points scored · Over 10.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.