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College Football 3rd Quarter Spread on Kalshi
If Houston wins by more than 7.5 points in the 3rd quarter of the Houston vs Colorado college football game originally scheduled for Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
14%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
28% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.01 | 14.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston wins 3Q by over 7.5 points · Houston wins by over 7.5 points | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 3Q by over 6.5 points · Houston wins by over 6.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 3Q by over 3.5 points · Houston wins by over 3.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 3Q by over 2.5 points · Houston wins by over 2.5 points | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 3Q by over 10.5 points · Houston wins by over 10.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 3Q by over 7.5 points · Colorado wins by over 7.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 3Q by over 6.5 points · Colorado wins by over 6.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 3Q by over 3.5 points · Colorado wins by over 3.5 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 3Q by over 2.5 points · Colorado wins by over 2.5 points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 3Q by over 10.5 points · Colorado wins by over 10.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| UCLA wins 3Q by over 7.5 points · UCLA wins by over 7.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 3Q by over 6.5 points · UCLA wins by over 6.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 3Q by over 3.5 points · UCLA wins by over 3.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 3Q by over 2.5 points · UCLA wins by over 2.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 3Q by over 10.5 points · UCLA wins by over 10.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins 3Q by over 7.5 points · Illinois wins by over 7.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins 3Q by over 6.5 points · Illinois wins by over 6.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins 3Q by over 3.5 points · Illinois wins by over 3.5 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins 3Q by over 2.5 points · Illinois wins by over 2.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins 3Q by over 10.5 points · Illinois wins by over 10.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh wins 3Q by over 7.5 points · Pittsburgh wins by over 7.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh wins 3Q by over 6.5 points · Pittsburgh wins by over 6.5 points | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh wins 3Q by over 3.5 points · Pittsburgh wins by over 3.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh wins 3Q by over 2.5 points · Pittsburgh wins by over 2.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh wins 3Q by over 10.5 points · Pittsburgh wins by over 10.5 points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. wins 3Q by over 7.5 points · Florida St. wins by over 7.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. wins 3Q by over 6.5 points · Florida St. wins by over 6.5 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. wins 3Q by over 3.5 points · Florida St. wins by over 3.5 points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. wins 3Q by over 2.5 points · Florida St. wins by over 2.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. wins 3Q by over 10.5 points · Florida St. wins by over 10.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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