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College Football 2nd Half Spread on Kalshi
If Houston wins by more than 7.5 points in the 2nd half (including overtime) of the Houston vs Colorado college football game originally scheduled for Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 63 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
96% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston wins 2H by over 7.5 points · Houston wins by over 7.5 points | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 2H by over 6.5 points · Houston wins by over 6.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 2H by over 4.5 points · Houston wins by over 4.5 points | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 2H by over 3.5 points · Houston wins by over 3.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 2H by over 2.5 points · Houston wins by over 2.5 points | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 2H by over 23.5 points · Houston wins by over 23.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 2H by over 20.5 points · Houston wins by over 20.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 2H by over 17.5 points · Houston wins by over 17.5 points | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 2H by over 14.5 points · Houston wins by over 14.5 points | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 2H by over 13.5 points · Houston wins by over 13.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 2H by over 10.5 points · Houston wins by over 10.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Houston wins 2H by over 9.5 points · Houston wins by over 9.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 2H by over 7.5 points · Colorado wins by over 7.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 2H by over 6.5 points · Colorado wins by over 6.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 2H by over 4.5 points · Colorado wins by over 4.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 2H by over 3.5 points · Colorado wins by over 3.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 2H by over 2.5 points · Colorado wins by over 2.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 2H by over 14.5 points · Colorado wins by over 14.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 2H by over 13.5 points · Colorado wins by over 13.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 2H by over 10.5 points · Colorado wins by over 10.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| Colorado wins 2H by over 9.5 points · Colorado wins by over 9.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 16, 03:15 UTC |
| UCLA wins 2H by over 7.5 points · UCLA wins by over 7.5 points | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 2H by over 6.5 points · UCLA wins by over 6.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 2H by over 4.5 points · UCLA wins by over 4.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 2H by over 3.5 points · UCLA wins by over 3.5 points | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 2H by over 2.5 points · UCLA wins by over 2.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 2H by over 23.5 points · UCLA wins by over 23.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 2H by over 20.5 points · UCLA wins by over 20.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 2H by over 17.5 points · UCLA wins by over 17.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 2H by over 14.5 points · UCLA wins by over 14.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 2H by over 13.5 points · UCLA wins by over 13.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 2H by over 10.5 points · UCLA wins by over 10.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA wins 2H by over 9.5 points · UCLA wins by over 9.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins 2H by over 7.5 points · Illinois wins by over 7.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins 2H by over 6.5 points · Illinois wins by over 6.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins 2H by over 4.5 points · Illinois wins by over 4.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins 2H by over 3.5 points · Illinois wins by over 3.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins 2H by over 2.5 points · Illinois wins by over 2.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins 2H by over 14.5 points · Illinois wins by over 14.5 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins 2H by over 13.5 points · Illinois wins by over 13.5 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 63 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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