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College Football 1st Half Team Total Points on Kalshi
If UCLA scores over 8.5 points in the 1st half of the Illinois vs UCLA college football game originally scheduled for Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 34 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA over 8.5 1H points scored · UCLA over 8.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA over 5.5 1H points scored · UCLA over 5.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA over 2.5 1H points scored · UCLA over 2.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA over 26.5 1H points scored · UCLA over 26.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA over 23.5 1H points scored · UCLA over 23.5 points | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA over 20.5 1H points scored · UCLA over 20.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA over 17.5 1H points scored · UCLA over 17.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA over 14.5 1H points scored · UCLA over 14.5 points | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| UCLA over 11.5 1H points scored · UCLA over 11.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois over 7.5 1H points scored · Illinois over 7.5 points | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois over 4.5 1H points scored · Illinois over 4.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois over 2.5 1H points scored · Illinois over 2.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois over 19.5 1H points scored · Illinois over 19.5 points | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois over 16.5 1H points scored · Illinois over 16.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois over 13.5 1H points scored · Illinois over 13.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois over 10.5 1H points scored · Illinois over 10.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh over 8.5 1H points scored · Pittsburgh over 8.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh over 5.5 1H points scored · Pittsburgh over 5.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh over 2.5 1H points scored · Pittsburgh over 2.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh over 26.5 1H points scored · Pittsburgh over 26.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh over 23.5 1H points scored · Pittsburgh over 23.5 points | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh over 20.5 1H points scored · Pittsburgh over 20.5 points | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh over 17.5 1H points scored · Pittsburgh over 17.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh over 14.5 1H points scored · Pittsburgh over 14.5 points | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh over 11.5 1H points scored · Pittsburgh over 11.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. over 6.5 1H points scored · Florida St. over 6.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. over 3.5 1H points scored · Florida St. over 3.5 points | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. over 2.5 1H points scored · Florida St. over 2.5 points | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. over 24.5 1H points scored · Florida St. over 24.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. over 21.5 1H points scored · Florida St. over 21.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. over 18.5 1H points scored · Florida St. over 18.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. over 15.5 1H points scored · Florida St. over 15.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. over 12.5 1H points scored · Florida St. over 12.5 points | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida St. over 9.5 1H points scored · Florida St. over 9.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 16, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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