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College Football 1st Half Winner on Kalshi
If neither team wins the 1st half of the LSU vs Tennessee college football game originally scheduled for Nov 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
45%
Median YES price across 774 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chattanooga wins the 1st half · Chattanooga | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 987 | Nov 23, 19:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 429 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Alabama wins the 1st half · Alabama | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 355 | Nov 23, 19:00 UTC |
| Western Michigan wins the 1st half · Western Michigan | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 278 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Boston College wins the 1st half · Boston College | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 268 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 221 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| West Virginia wins the 1st half · West Virginia | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 183 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 106 | Nov 16, 20:30 UTC |
| Kentucky wins the 1st half · Kentucky | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 84 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 81 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Northwestern wins the 1st half · Northwestern | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 76 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| USC wins the 1st half · USC | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 59 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Miami (OH) wins the 1st half · Miami (OH) | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 52 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Ohio St. wins the 1st half · Ohio St. | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 51 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 49 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 42 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 42 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Florida wins the 1st half · Florida | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 42 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Texas wins the 1st half · Texas | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 39 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Louisiana wins the 1st half · Louisiana | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 34 | Nov 15, 02:00 UTC |
| Akron wins the 1st half · Akron | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 29 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Tennessee wins the 1st half · Tennessee | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 29 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Boise St. wins the 1st half · Boise St. | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 25 | Nov 16, 23:00 UTC |
| Rhode Island wins the 1st half · Rhode Island | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 25 | Nov 16, 17:00 UTC |
| UMass wins the 1st half · UMass | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 21 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Montana wins the 1st half · Montana | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 20 | Nov 17, 03:30 UTC |
| Mississippi St. wins the 1st half · Mississippi St. | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 19 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins the 1st half · Illinois | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 12 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 10 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Wake Forest wins the 1st half · Wake Forest | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 9 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Central Michigan wins the 1st half · Central Michigan | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 7 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Georgia wins the 1st half · Georgia | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 6 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 4 | Nov 13, 20:00 UTC |
| Ohio wins the 1st half · Ohio | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 4 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Montana St. wins the 1st half · Montana St. | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 3 | Nov 23, 19:00 UTC |
| Miami (FL) wins the 1st half · Miami (FL) | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 3 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Georgia wins the 1st half · Georgia | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 3 | Nov 23, 20:00 UTC |
| Indiana wins the 1st half · Indiana | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 2 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins the 1st half · Texas Tech | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 2 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
| Auburn wins the 1st half · Auburn | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 2 | Nov 16, 20:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 774 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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