Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Australia NBL Total on Kalshi
If over 199.5 total points are scored in the Illawarra Hawks vs SE Melbourne Phoenix men's professional Australia NBL basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026 at 3:30 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, NBL, Sofascore, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
62%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
76% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 62¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.33 | 63.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 199.5 points scored · Over 199.5 points scored | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 8,741 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Over 159.5 points scored · Over 159.5 points scored | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 602 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Over 149.5 points scored · Over 149.5 points scored | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 602 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Over 139.5 points scored · Over 139.5 points scored | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 602 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Over 164.5 points scored · Over 164.5 points scored | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 202 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Over 129.5 points scored · Over 129.5 points scored | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 202 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Over 189.5 points scored · Over 189.5 points scored | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Over 184.5 points scored · Over 184.5 points scored | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Over 179.5 points scored · Over 179.5 points scored | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Over 174.5 points scored · Over 174.5 points scored | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Over 169.5 points scored · Over 169.5 points scored | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.