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Australia NBL Spread on Kalshi
If SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by more than 6.5 points in the Illawarra Hawks vs SE Melbourne Phoenix men's professional Australia NBL basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026 at 3:30 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, NBL, Sofascore, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
17%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
34% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by over 6.5 points · SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by over 6.5 points | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 784 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Illawarra Hawks wins by over 22.5 points · Illawarra Hawks wins by over 22.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 500 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by over 10.5 points · SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by over 10.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 45 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Illawarra Hawks wins by over 2.5 points · Illawarra Hawks wins by over 2.5 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 21 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Illawarra Hawks wins by over 18.5 points · Illawarra Hawks wins by over 18.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 20 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points · SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by over 22.5 points · SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by over 22.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by over 18.5 points · SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by over 18.5 points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by over 14.5 points · SE Melbourne Phoenix wins by over 14.5 points | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Illawarra Hawks wins by over 6.5 points · Illawarra Hawks wins by over 6.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Illawarra Hawks wins by over 14.5 points · Illawarra Hawks wins by over 14.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Illawarra Hawks wins by over 10.5 points · Illawarra Hawks wins by over 10.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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