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Australia NBL Game on Kalshi
If Sydney Kings wins the Sydney Kings vs Cairns Taipans men's professional Australia NBL basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 13, 2026 at 3:30 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NBL, Sofascore, Flashscore, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tasmania JackJumpers wins · Tasmania JackJumpers | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 359 | Nov 14, 10:30 UTC |
| Illawarra Hawks wins · Illawarra Hawks | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 1 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
| Sydney Kings wins · Sydney Kings | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 15, 08:30 UTC |
| Cairns Taipans wins · Cairns Taipans | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 15, 08:30 UTC |
| New Zealand Breakers wins · New Zealand Breakers | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 15, 06:30 UTC |
| Brisbane Bullets wins · Brisbane Bullets | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 06:30 UTC |
| Perth Wildcats wins · Perth Wildcats | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 14, 10:30 UTC |
| Melbourne United wins · Melbourne United | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 14, 08:30 UTC |
| Adelaide 36ers wins · Adelaide 36ers | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 14, 08:30 UTC |
| SE Melbourne Phoenix wins · SE Melbourne Phoenix | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 13, 08:30 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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