Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Next recession start on Kalshi
If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NBER.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will the next U.S. recession start? · Q2 2025 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 131,429 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| When will the next U.S. recession start? · Q4 2025 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 97,673 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| When will the next U.S. recession start? · Q1 2026 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 87,066 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| When will the next U.S. recession start? · Q3 2025 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 83,737 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| When will the next U.S. recession start? · Q1 2025 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 75,998 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| When will the next U.S. recession start? · Q4 2024 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 46,247 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.