Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Win Margin on Kalshi
If Sacramento wins the game by 6 to 10 points in the Orlando vs Sacramento Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 48 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State wins by 6 to 10 points · Golden State wins by 6-10 points | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8,650 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by 16 to 25 points · Golden State wins by 16-25 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 6,594 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by 11 to 15 points · Golden State wins by 11-15 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,388 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by 26 or more points · Golden State wins by 26+ points | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 3,821 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins by 1 to 5 points · Golden State wins by 1-5 points | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,250 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins by 6 to 10 points · New Orleans wins by 6-10 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,215 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by 6 to 10 points · Philadelphia wins by 6-10 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 481 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins by 1 to 5 points · Sacramento wins by 1-5 points | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 314 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins by 1 to 5 points · Orlando wins by 1-5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 308 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins by 1 to 5 points · Philadelphia wins by 1-5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 165 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins by 1 to 5 points · New Orleans wins by 1-5 points | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 115 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Boston wins by 11 to 20 points · Boston wins by 11-20 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 105 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| New York wins by 1 to 5 points · New York wins by 1-5 points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 94 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| New York wins by 11 to 15 points · New York wins by 11-15 points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 90 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| New Orleans wins by 11 or more points · New Orleans wins by 11+ points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 77 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New York wins by 16 to 25 points · New York wins by 16-25 points | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 73 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins by 11 to 20 points · Oklahoma City wins by 11-20 points | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 50 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Boston wins by 1 to 5 points · Boston wins by 1-5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 43 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| New York wins by 6 to 10 points · New York wins by 6-10 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 11 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Miami wins by 26 or more points · Miami wins by 26+ points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 2 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins by 6 to 10 points · Sacramento wins by 6-10 points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins by 21 or more points · Sacramento wins by 21+ points | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins by 11 to 20 points · Sacramento wins by 11-20 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins by 6 to 10 points · Orlando wins by 6-10 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins by 21 or more points · Orlando wins by 21+ points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins by 11 to 20 points · Orlando wins by 11-20 points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Utah wins by 6 to 10 points · Utah wins by 6-10 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins by 1 to 5 points · Utah wins by 1-5 points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins by 11 or more points · Utah wins by 11+ points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins by 6 to 10 points · Miami wins by 6-10 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins by 1 to 5 points · Miami wins by 1-5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins by 16 to 25 points · Miami wins by 16-25 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins by 11 to 15 points · Miami wins by 11-15 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Portland wins by 6 to 10 points · Portland wins by 6-10 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins by 21 or more points · Portland wins by 21+ points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins by 1 to 5 points · Portland wins by 1-5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins by 11 to 20 points · Portland wins by 11-20 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins by 6 to 10 points · Oklahoma City wins by 6-10 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins by 21 or more points · Oklahoma City wins by 21+ points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins by 1 to 5 points · Oklahoma City wins by 1-5 points | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 48 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.