Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Pro Basketball Trade on Kalshi
If Stephen Curry is traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 46 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
51% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.59 | 27.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Klay Thompson be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Klay Thompson | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 15,059 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthony Davis be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Anthony Davis | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 7,497 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Trey Murphy be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Trey Murphy | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 5,338 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jimmy Butler be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Jimmy Butler | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 3,630 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DeMar DeRozan be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · DeMar DeRozan | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 3,143 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Donovan Mitchell be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Donovan Mitchell | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 2,466 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Domantas Sabonis be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Domantas Sabonis | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 2,404 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jalen Duren be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Jalen Duren | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 2,331 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jaden McDaniels be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Jaden McDaniels | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 2,150 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Joel Embiid be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Joel Embiid | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 2,103 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Herbert Jones be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Herbert Jones | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 2,014 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kristaps Porzingis be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Kristaps Porzingis | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 1,884 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Derrick White be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Derrick White | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 1,802 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Rudy Gobert be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Rudy Gobert | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,508 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kyrie Irving be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Kyrie Irving | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 1,145 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Zach LaVine be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Zach LaVine | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 1,106 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Franz Wagner be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Franz Wagner | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 936 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jamal Murray be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Jamal Murray | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 919 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kevin Durant be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Kevin Durant | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 902 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Naji Marshall be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Naji Marshall | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 790 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will De'Aaron Fox be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · De'Aaron Fox | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 655 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sam Hauser be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Sam Hauser | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 614 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Michael Porter Jr. be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Michael Porter Jr. | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 610 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Zion Williamson be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Zion Williamson | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 592 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Evan Mobley be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Evan Mobley | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 577 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jarred Vanderbilt be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Jarred Vanderbilt | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 489 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Daniel Gafford be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Daniel Gafford | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 486 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dejounte Murray be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Dejounte Murray | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 423 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Isaiah Hartenstein be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Isaiah Hartenstein | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 412 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stephen Curry be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Stephen Curry | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 405 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jakob Poeltl be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Jakob Poeltl | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 405 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Nikola Jokić be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Nikola Jokić | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 384 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jarrett Allen be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Jarrett Allen | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 356 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Donte DiVincenzo be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Donte DiVincenzo | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 330 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jalen Green be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Jalen Green | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 323 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Moses Moody be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Moses Moody | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 316 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Paolo Banchero be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Paolo Banchero | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 273 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Anthony Black be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Anthony Black | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 262 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will PJ Washington be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · PJ Washington | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 257 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Andrew Wiggins be traded after Issuance and before Feb 12, 2027? · Andrew Wiggins | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 239 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 46 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.