Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Total on Kalshi
If over 249.5 total points are scored in the Orlando vs Sacramento Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
51%
Median YES price across 174 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full Game: Over 225.5 points scored · Over 225.5 points | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 88,699 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 229.5 points scored · Over 229.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 85,687 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 223.5 points scored · Over 223.5 points | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 83,777 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 221.5 points scored · Over 221.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 62,640 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 227.5 points scored · Over 227.5 points | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 59,642 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 219.5 points scored · Over 219.5 points | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 36,725 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 203.5 points scored · Over 203.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 35,290 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 231.5 points scored · Over 231.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 28,374 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 217.5 points scored · Over 217.5 points | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 22,204 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 213.5 points scored · Over 213.5 points | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 21,434 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 207.5 points scored · Over 207.5 points | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 20,726 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 209.5 points scored · Over 209.5 points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 15,789 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 205.5 points scored · Over 205.5 points | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 12,207 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 215.5 points scored · Over 215.5 points | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 11,949 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 211.5 points scored · Over 211.5 points | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 10,108 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 215.5 points scored · Over 215.5 points | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 8,826 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 233.5 points scored · Over 233.5 points | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 8,041 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 237.5 points scored · Over 237.5 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 7,777 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 253.5 points scored · Over 253.5 points | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 7,613 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 235.5 points scored · Over 235.5 points | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 6,775 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 245.5 points scored · Over 245.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 6,616 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 239.5 points scored · Over 239.5 points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 5,240 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 257.5 points scored · Over 257.5 points | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,759 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 255.5 points scored · Over 255.5 points | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,724 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 243.5 points scored · Over 243.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 4,067 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 241.5 points scored · Over 241.5 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 3,905 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 247.5 points scored · Over 247.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3,801 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 249.5 points scored · Over 249.5 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 3,715 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 251.5 points scored · Over 251.5 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,330 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 220.5 points scored · Over 220.5 points | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,207 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 259.5 points scored · Over 259.5 points | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 681 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 228.5 points scored · Over 228.5 points | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 472 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 220.5 points scored · Over 220.5 points | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 403 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 228.5 points scored · Over 228.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 339 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 226.5 points scored · Over 226.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 269 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 233.5 points scored · Over 233.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 137 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 187.5 points scored · Over 187.5 points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 109 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 193.5 points scored · Over 193.5 points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 107 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 198.5 points scored · Over 198.5 points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 107 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Full Game: Over 219.5 points scored · Over 219.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 104 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 174 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.