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NBA Team Total on Kalshi
If New Orleans scores more than 89.5 points in the New Orleans vs Golden State Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 230 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 53¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.65 | 54.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State over 120.5 points scored · Golden State over 120.5 points | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 12,492 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 124.5 points scored · Golden State over 124.5 points | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 12,418 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 110.5 points scored · Golden State over 110.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,680 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 118.5 points scored · Golden State over 118.5 points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 10,468 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 126.5 points scored · Golden State over 126.5 points | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 10,403 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 128.5 points scored · Golden State over 128.5 points | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 8,466 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 97.5 points scored · New Orleans over 97.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 8,462 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 109.5 points scored · New Orleans over 109.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 6,279 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 122.5 points scored · Golden State over 122.5 points | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 4,631 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 106.5 points scored · Golden State over 106.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,421 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 111.5 points scored · New Orleans over 111.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 3,181 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 95.5 points scored · New Orleans over 95.5 points | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 2,896 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 113.5 points scored · New Orleans over 113.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2,598 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 99.5 points scored · New Orleans over 99.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 2,523 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 101.5 points scored · New Orleans over 101.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 2,145 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 116.5 points scored · Golden State over 116.5 points | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,122 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 102.5 points scored · Golden State over 102.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,012 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 107.5 points scored · New Orleans over 107.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,906 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 130.5 points scored · Golden State over 130.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,820 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 105.5 points scored · New Orleans over 105.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 1,630 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 138.5 points scored · Golden State over 138.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 1,304 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 103.5 points scored · New Orleans over 103.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,277 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 132.5 points scored · Golden State over 132.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 1,211 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 114.5 points scored · Golden State over 114.5 points | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 927 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 134.5 points scored · Golden State over 134.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 830 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 115.5 points scored · New Orleans over 115.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 702 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 93.5 points scored · New Orleans over 93.5 points | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 543 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 129.5 points scored · New Orleans over 129.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 537 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 112.5 points scored · Golden State over 112.5 points | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 211 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 91.5 points scored · New Orleans over 91.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 174 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 89.5 points scored · New Orleans over 89.5 points | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 141 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 108.5 points scored · Golden State over 108.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 119 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia over 108.5 points scored · Philadelphia over 108.5 points | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 39 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| New Orleans over 121.5 points scored · New Orleans over 121.5 points | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 33 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Milwaukee over 104.5 points scored · Milwaukee over 104.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 28 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Milwaukee over 100.5 points scored · Milwaukee over 100.5 points | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 26 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| New Orleans over 119.5 points scored · New Orleans over 119.5 points | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 25 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia over 118.5 points scored · Philadelphia over 118.5 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 18 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Boston over 116.5 points scored · Boston over 116.5 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 15 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Golden State over 104.5 points scored · Golden State over 104.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 230 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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