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NBA Player Steals + Blocks on Kalshi
If Yaxel Lendeborg records 4+ combined steals and blocks in the New Orleans vs Golden State Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
79% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski: 2+ combined steals and blocks · Brandin Podziemski: 2+ | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 1,260 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3+ combined steals and blocks · Brandin Podziemski: 3+ | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 52 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 4+ combined steals and blocks · Yaxel Lendeborg: 4+ | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3+ combined steals and blocks · Yaxel Lendeborg: 3+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 2+ combined steals and blocks · Yaxel Lendeborg: 2+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Anthony Melton: 3+ combined steals and blocks · De'Anthony Melton: 3+ | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Anthony Melton: 2+ combined steals and blocks · De'Anthony Melton: 2+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 4+ combined steals and blocks · Brandin Podziemski: 4+ | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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