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NBA Playoff Seed Over/Unders on Kalshi
If the Washington Pro Basketball team is the #10 seed or better at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
45%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
91% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas: #10 seed or better · Dallas: #10 seed or better | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 728 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Washington: #10 seed or better · Washington: #10 seed or better | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 614 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Boston: #3 seed or better · Boston: #3 seed or better | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 591 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Minnesota: #4 seed or better · Minnesota: #4 seed or better | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City: #2 seed or better · Oklahoma City: #2 seed or better | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 289 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Phoenix: #8 seed or better · Phoenix: #8 seed or better | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 263 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Cleveland: #4 seed or better · Cleveland: #4 seed or better | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 261 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Toronto: #5 seed or better · Toronto: #5 seed or better | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 231 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Orlando: #9 seed or better · Orlando: #9 seed or better | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 199 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Milwaukee: #10 seed or better · Milwaukee: #10 seed or better | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 180 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Utah: #9 seed or better · Utah: #9 seed or better | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 153 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Memphis: #10 seed or better · Memphis: #10 seed or better | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 150 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Detroit: #4 seed or better · Detroit: #4 seed or better | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 150 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Denver: #4 seed or better · Denver: #4 seed or better | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 139 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Sacramento: #10 seed or better · Sacramento: #10 seed or better | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 100 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Portland: #7 seed or better · Portland: #7 seed or better | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 89 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Miami: #6 seed or better · Miami: #6 seed or better | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 79 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Atlanta: #10 seed or better · Atlanta: #10 seed or better | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 74 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles C: #10 seed or better · Los Angeles C: #10 seed or better | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 29 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L: #5 seed or better · Los Angeles L: #5 seed or better | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 21 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| New York: #2 seed or better · New York: #2 seed or better | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 11 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Indiana: #8 seed or better · Indiana: #8 seed or better | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 8 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Houston: #3 seed or better · Houston: #3 seed or better | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Charlotte: #10 seed or better · Charlotte: #10 seed or better | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| San Antonio: #2 seed or better · San Antonio: #2 seed or better | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia: #2 seed or better · Philadelphia: #2 seed or better | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| New Orleans: #10 seed or better · New Orleans: #10 seed or better | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Golden State: #10 seed or better · Golden State: #10 seed or better | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Chicago: #10 seed or better · Chicago: #10 seed or better | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Brooklyn: #10 seed or better · Brooklyn: #10 seed or better | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.