What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 42¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.03.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 44% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 42%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NBA Retirement on Kalshi

If LeBron James announces his retirement from the NBA before the 2029-30 NBA season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Governing League, Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports, The Wall Street Journal, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, The Athletic, AP, ESPN, The Washington Post, Bloomberg News, ABC, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

42%

Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

84% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
42¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.03	43.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season? · Before the 2027-28 season	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	84%	8,355	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season? · Before the 2028-29 season	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	43%	1,674	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Stephen Curry announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season? · Before the 2028-29 season	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	48%	833	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Draymond Green announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season? · Before the 2027-28 season	57¢	57%	1.7¢	—	86%	796	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will LeBron James announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season? · Before the 2029-30 season	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	629	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Stephen Curry announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season? · Before the 2027-28 season	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	561	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Kyrie Irving announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season? · Before the 2028-29 season	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	41%	486	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Stephen Curry announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season? · Before the 2029-30 season	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	385	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Kawhi Leonard announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season? · Before the 2028-29 season	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	353	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Draymond Green announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season? · Before the 2028-29 season	60¢	60%	1.7¢	—	79%	301	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Kevin Durant announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season? · Before the 2029-30 season	43¢	43%	1.7¢	—	86%	186	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Draymond Green announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season? · Before the 2029-30 season	82¢	82%	1.1¢	—	37%	160	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Kevin Durant announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season? · Before the 2027-28 season	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	135	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Kawhi Leonard announce his retirement before the 2030-31 NBA season? · Before the 2030-31 season	53¢	53%	1.7¢	—	94%	84	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Kyrie Irving announce his retirement before the 2030-31 NBA season? · Before the 2030-31 season	47¢	47%	1.7¢	—	94%	47	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Kevin Durant announce his retirement before the 2028-29 NBA season? · Before the 2028-29 season	26¢	26%	1.4¢	—	53%	39	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Kyrie Irving announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season? · Before the 2027-28 season	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	26	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Kawhi Leonard announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season? · Before the 2029-30 season	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	71%	22	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Kawhi Leonard announce his retirement before the 2027-28 NBA season? · Before the 2027-28 season	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	17	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC
Will Kyrie Irving announce his retirement before the 2029-30 NBA season? · Before the 2029-30 season	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	61%	0	Nov 15, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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