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NBA Game Points Leader on Kalshi
If Brandon Williams records the most points in the New Orleans vs Golden State Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
91% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 46¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.89 | 47.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry: Points leader · Stephen Curry | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 390 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Bennedict Mathurin: Points leader · Bennedict Mathurin | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 181 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Saddiq Bey: Points leader · Saddiq Bey | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 156 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Jeremiah Fears: Points leader · Jeremiah Fears | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 150 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: Points leader · Yaxel Lendeborg | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 70 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Gui Santos: Points leader · Gui Santos | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 34 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: Points leader · Brandin Podziemski | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 31 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandon Williams: Points leader · Brandon Williams | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Herbert Jones: Points leader · Herbert Jones | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Karlo Matković: Points leader · Karlo Matković | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Derik Queen: Points leader · Derik Queen | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Dejounte Murray: Points leader · Dejounte Murray | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Georges Niang: Points leader · Georges Niang | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Anthony Melton: Points leader · De'Anthony Melton | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Draymond Green: Points leader · Draymond Green | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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