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NBA Best Record Post-All-Star Break on Kalshi
If the Washington Pro Basketball team has the best winning percentage from the beginning of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season to the All-Star break starting on Feb 19, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Houston · Houston | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 5,008 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Oklahoma City · Oklahoma City | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,191 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Minnesota · Minnesota | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,799 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Portland · Portland | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,684 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Los Angeles L · Los Angeles L | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,611 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Detroit · Detroit | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,578 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: San Antonio · San Antonio | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 1,359 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Philadelphia · Philadelphia | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 963 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Atlanta · Atlanta | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 239 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Miami · Miami | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 236 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Boston · Boston | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 231 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Charlotte · Charlotte | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 31 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Golden State · Golden State | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 16 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Cleveland · Cleveland | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 11 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Washington · Washington | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Utah · Utah | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Toronto · Toronto | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Sacramento · Sacramento | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Phoenix · Phoenix | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Orlando · Orlando | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: New York · New York | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: New Orleans · New Orleans | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Milwaukee · Milwaukee | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Memphis · Memphis | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Los Angeles C · Los Angeles C | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Indiana · Indiana | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Denver · Denver | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Dallas · Dallas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Chicago · Chicago | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Best record going into the All-Star break: Brooklyn · Brooklyn | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Mar 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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