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Which Team Will Make the Play-In Tournament on Kalshi
If Utah qualifies for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
33%
Median YES price across 30 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
66% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 33¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.34 | 34.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Golden State qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Golden State | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 5,656 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Brooklyn qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Brooklyn | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 4,702 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Memphis qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Memphis | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 3,974 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sacramento qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Sacramento | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 3,820 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Miami qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Miami | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 3,147 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dallas qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Dallas | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1,910 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Washington qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Washington | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,821 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Philadelphia | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 1,651 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will New Orleans qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · New Orleans | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 1,480 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Milwaukee qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Milwaukee | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,198 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Charlotte qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Charlotte | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 1,017 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Orlando qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Orlando | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 995 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Utah qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Utah | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 892 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Phoenix qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Phoenix | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 746 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Indiana qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Indiana | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 555 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles L qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Los Angeles L | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 400 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles C qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Los Angeles C | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 395 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Minnesota qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Minnesota | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 377 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will San Antonio qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · San Antonio | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 340 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will New York qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · New York | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 225 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Atlanta qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Atlanta | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 219 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Portland qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Portland | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 183 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chicago qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Chicago | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 100 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Houston qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Houston | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 57 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Oklahoma City qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Oklahoma City | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 35 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Detroit qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Detroit | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 13 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Boston qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Boston | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 11 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Toronto qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Toronto | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 9 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Denver qualify for the Pro Basketball Western Conference Play-In Tournament? · Denver | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 5 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cleveland qualify for the Pro Basketball Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament? · Cleveland | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 2 | Jun 15, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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