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Pro Basketball Next Team on Kalshi
If Joel Embiid's next team is the Washington Pro Basketball team before Feb 12, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 1147 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Philadelphia · Philadelphia | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 11,339 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| LeBron James' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Retires / No Team · Retires / No Team | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 4,263 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| LeBron James' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Miami · Miami | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,796 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Rob Dillingham's next team before Feb 12, 2027: Retires / No Team · Retires / No Team | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 1,012 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| LeBron James' next team before Feb 12, 2027: New York · New York | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 802 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| D'Angelo Russell's next team before Feb 12, 2027: Retires / No Team · Retires / No Team | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 723 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| LeBron James' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Sacramento · Sacramento | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 651 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Retires / No Team · Retires / No Team | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 514 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Dalton Knecht's next team before Feb 12, 2027: Toronto · Toronto | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 500 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Dalton Knecht's next team before Feb 12, 2027: Sacramento · Sacramento | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 380 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Dalton Knecht's next team before Feb 12, 2027: New York · New York | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 313 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Dalton Knecht's next team before Feb 12, 2027: Washington · Washington | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 236 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Rob Dillingham's next team before Feb 12, 2027: Toronto · Toronto | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 230 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Draymond Green's next team before Feb 12, 2027: Atlanta · Atlanta | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 221 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Rob Dillingham's next team before Feb 12, 2027: Sacramento · Sacramento | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 176 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| D'Angelo Russell's next team before Feb 12, 2027: Phoenix · Phoenix | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 160 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Dalton Knecht's next team before Feb 12, 2027: San Antonio · San Antonio | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 118 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Rob Dillingham's next team before Feb 12, 2027: Dallas · Dallas | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 117 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| D'Angelo Russell's next team before Feb 12, 2027: Miami · Miami | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 82 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: New York · New York | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 29 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Philadelphia · Philadelphia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 28 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Orlando · Orlando | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 28 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Memphis · Memphis | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 21 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Indiana · Indiana | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 20 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Houston · Houston | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 20 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Detroit · Detroit | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 20 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Denver · Denver | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 20 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Dallas · Dallas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 20 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Chicago · Chicago | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 20 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Charlotte · Charlotte | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 20 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Boston · Boston | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 20 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Atlanta · Atlanta | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 20 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: New Orleans · New Orleans | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 19 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Milwaukee · Milwaukee | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 19 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Cleveland · Cleveland | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 19 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Brooklyn · Brooklyn | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 19 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| D'Angelo Russell's next team before Feb 12, 2027: Sacramento · Sacramento | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 18 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| LeBron James' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Cleveland · Cleveland | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 16 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Washington · Washington | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 10 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
| Kristaps Porzingis' next team before Feb 12, 2027: Utah · Utah | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 10 | Feb 12, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 1147 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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