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NBA Most Improved Player on Kalshi
If Anthony Black wins the Pro Basketball Most Improved Player award in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 49 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Ty Jerome · Ty Jerome | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 15,952 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Ajay Mitchell · Ajay Mitchell | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 12,383 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Walker Kessler · Walker Kessler | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7,837 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Jaden McDaniels · Jaden McDaniels | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 7,322 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Brandon Miller · Brandon Miller | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,894 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Dylan Harper · Dylan Harper | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,101 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Jabari Smith Jr. · Jabari Smith Jr. | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 2,746 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Aaron Wiggins · Aaron Wiggins | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,040 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Pelle Larsson · Pelle Larsson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,535 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Scoot Henderson · Scoot Henderson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,501 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Collin Murray-Boyles · Collin Murray-Boyles | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,465 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Davion Mitchell · Davion Mitchell | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,464 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Ayo Dosunmu · Ayo Dosunmu | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,311 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Joan Beringer · Joan Beringer | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,205 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Naz Reid · Naz Reid | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,029 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Terrence Shannon Jr. · Terrence Shannon Jr. | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 985 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Alex Sarr · Alex Sarr | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 975 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Jonathan Kuminga · Jonathan Kuminga | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 964 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Paul Reed · Paul Reed | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 937 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Peyton Watson · Peyton Watson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 855 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Amen Thompson · Amen Thompson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 836 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Kel'el Ware · Kel'el Ware | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 776 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Matas Buzelis · Matas Buzelis | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 769 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Kyshawn George · Kyshawn George | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 760 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Egor Dëmin · Egor Dëmin | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 723 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Anthony Black · Anthony Black | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 677 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Kon Knueppel · Kon Knueppel | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 622 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Leonard Miller · Leonard Miller | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 480 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Cedric Coward · Cedric Coward | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 476 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Coby White · Coby White | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 472 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Reed Sheppard · Reed Sheppard | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 471 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Cason Wallace · Cason Wallace | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 464 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Ausar Thompson · Ausar Thompson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 458 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Ryan Rollins · Ryan Rollins | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 449 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Khaman Maluach · Khaman Maluach | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 421 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Payton Pritchard · Payton Pritchard | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 399 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Stephon Castle · Stephon Castle | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 384 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: VJ Edgecombe · VJ Edgecombe | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 282 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Jalen Johnson · Jalen Johnson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 282 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Most Improved Player: Ousmane Dieng · Ousmane Dieng | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 250 | Jul 08, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 49 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.