Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Game on Kalshi
If Utah wins the Utah vs Houston Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 66 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia wins · Philadelphia | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 343,532 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins · Oklahoma City | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 131,421 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| New York wins · New York | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 120,983 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Milwaukee wins · Milwaukee | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 65,658 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Phoenix wins · Phoenix | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 63,672 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Boston wins · Boston | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 62,176 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins · Golden State | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 40,997 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Miami wins · Miami | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 32,968 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L wins · Los Angeles L | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 22,305 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Portland wins · Portland | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 19,971 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins · Sacramento | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 16,434 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Houston wins · Houston | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 13,131 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Los Angeles C wins · Los Angeles C | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 12,028 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins · Utah | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 11,067 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins · Orlando | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 9,430 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Boston wins · Boston | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 8,248 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| San Antonio wins · San Antonio | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 7,649 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| New York wins · New York | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 4,965 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Chicago wins · Chicago | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 4,790 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Minnesota wins · Minnesota | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 4,457 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| Denver wins · Denver | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 4,256 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Dallas wins · Dallas | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 4,174 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins · Golden State | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 3,970 | Nov 16, 02:30 UTC |
| Portland wins · Portland | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 3,745 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Detroit wins · Detroit | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 3,291 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Cleveland wins · Cleveland | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 2,335 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Milwaukee wins · Milwaukee | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 2,233 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Washington wins · Washington | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 2,119 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins · New Orleans | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 2,109 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Memphis wins · Memphis | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,993 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins · Oklahoma City | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,675 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins · Philadelphia | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 1,565 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Dallas wins · Dallas | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,484 | Nov 17, 23:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins · Oklahoma City | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 1,252 | Nov 16, 03:30 UTC |
| Los Angeles L wins · Los Angeles L | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 875 | Nov 17, 21:00 UTC |
| Toronto wins · Toronto | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 802 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Houston wins · Houston | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 783 | Nov 16, 01:30 UTC |
| San Antonio wins · San Antonio | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 740 | Nov 16, 02:30 UTC |
| Washington wins · Washington | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 722 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Indiana wins · Indiana | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 590 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 66 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.