Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Finals Outcome on Kalshi
If the Washington Pro Basketball team defeats San Antonio in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 250 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Basketball Finals: Boston beats Houston · Boston beats Houston | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 378 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Memphis beats Philadelphia · Memphis beats Philadelphia | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 94 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Philadelphia beats San Antonio · Philadelphia beats San Antonio | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 90 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Atlanta beats Denver · Atlanta beats Denver | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 88 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Indiana beats Oklahoma City · Indiana beats Oklahoma City | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 68 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Boston beats Golden State · Boston beats Golden State | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 27 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Portland beats Indiana · Portland beats Indiana | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: San Antonio beats Cleveland · San Antonio beats Cleveland | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Washington beats San Antonio · Washington beats San Antonio | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Washington beats Oklahoma City · Washington beats Oklahoma City | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Washington beats Minnesota · Washington beats Minnesota | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Washington beats Los Angeles L · Washington beats Los Angeles L | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Washington beats Golden State · Washington beats Golden State | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Washington beats Denver · Washington beats Denver | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Utah beats Toronto · Utah beats Toronto | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Utah beats Philadelphia · Utah beats Philadelphia | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Utah beats New York · Utah beats New York | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Utah beats Miami · Utah beats Miami | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Utah beats Indiana · Utah beats Indiana | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Utah beats Detroit · Utah beats Detroit | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Utah beats Cleveland · Utah beats Cleveland | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Utah beats Boston · Utah beats Boston | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Toronto beats San Antonio · Toronto beats San Antonio | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Toronto beats Oklahoma City · Toronto beats Oklahoma City | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Toronto beats Minnesota · Toronto beats Minnesota | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Toronto beats Los Angeles L · Toronto beats Los Angeles L | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Toronto beats Houston · Toronto beats Houston | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Toronto beats Golden State · Toronto beats Golden State | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: Toronto beats Denver · Toronto beats Denver | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: San Antonio beats Washington · San Antonio beats Washington | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: San Antonio beats Toronto · San Antonio beats Toronto | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: San Antonio beats Philadelphia · San Antonio beats Philadelphia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: San Antonio beats Orlando · San Antonio beats Orlando | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: San Antonio beats New York · San Antonio beats New York | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: San Antonio beats Miami · San Antonio beats Miami | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: San Antonio beats Indiana · San Antonio beats Indiana | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: San Antonio beats Detroit · San Antonio beats Detroit | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: San Antonio beats Charlotte · San Antonio beats Charlotte | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: San Antonio beats Boston · San Antonio beats Boston | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Pro Basketball Finals: San Antonio beats Atlanta · San Antonio beats Atlanta | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Aug 07, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 250 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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