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NBA Player Threes Escalator on Kalshi

If Each Yes contract pays per made three-pointers recorded by Dejounte Murray in the New Orleans vs Golden State Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026. Each 1 made three-pointer increases the payout by the following schedule: 0 threes, $0.0000; 1, $0.0010; 2, $0.0080; 3, $0.0270; 4, $0.0640; 5, $0.1250; 6, $0.2160; 7, $0.3430; 8, $0.5120; 9, $0.7290; and 10 or more, $1.0000. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Yes pays out at most $1.00. Then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)
16%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
33% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
16¢ (now)0.9¢$2.9416.9%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Stephen Curry player threes escalator · Stephen Curry12¢12%0.7¢—24%438Nov 12, 03:00 UTC
Dejounte Murray player threes escalator · Dejounte Murray33¢33%1.5¢—65%281Nov 12, 03:00 UTC
Brandin Podziemski player threes escalator · Brandin Podziemski16¢16%1.0¢—33%169Nov 12, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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