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NBA 4th Quarter Spread on Kalshi
If New Orleans wins by more than 8.5 points in the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the New Orleans vs Golden State Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
23%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
46% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans wins 4Q by over 1.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 1.5 points | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 3,134 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 4Q by over 1.5 points · Golden State wins by over 1.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,306 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 4Q by over 3.5 points · Golden State wins by over 3.5 points | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 1,192 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 4Q by over 13.5 points · Golden State wins by over 13.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 683 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 4Q by over 11.5 points · Golden State wins by over 11.5 points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 645 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins 4Q by over 10.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 10.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 223 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 4Q by over 9.5 points · Golden State wins by over 9.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 145 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 4Q by over 7.5 points · Golden State wins by over 7.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 93 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Golden State wins 4Q by over 5.5 points · Golden State wins by over 5.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 92 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins 4Q by over 6.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 6.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 50 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins 4Q by over 8.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 8.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 26 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins 4Q by over 4.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 4.5 points | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 11 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins 4Q by over 2.5 points · New Orleans wins by over 2.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 3 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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