Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA 3rd Quarter Total on Kalshi
If over 68.5 total points are scored in the 3rd quarter of the New Orleans vs Golden State Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
66%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
67% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 67¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $1.15 | 68.5% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd Quarter: Over 56.5 points scored · Over 56.5 points | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 31,209 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Quarter: Over 54.5 points scored · Over 54.5 points | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 6,677 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Quarter: Over 50.5 points scored · Over 50.5 points | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 4,625 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Quarter: Over 58.5 points scored · Over 58.5 points | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 3,603 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Quarter: Over 60.5 points scored · Over 60.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 3,128 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Quarter: Over 68.5 points scored · Over 68.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 1,964 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Quarter: Over 66.5 points scored · Over 66.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 1,611 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Quarter: Over 64.5 points scored · Over 64.5 points | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 1,560 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Quarter: Over 62.5 points scored · Over 62.5 points | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 1,523 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Quarter: Over 48.5 points scored · Over 48.5 points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 964 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Quarter: Over 44.5 points scored · Over 44.5 points | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 541 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Quarter: Over 52.5 points scored · Over 52.5 points | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 353 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| 3rd Quarter: Over 46.5 points scored · Over 46.5 points | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 10 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.