Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA 3rd Quarter Spread on Kalshi
If Portland wins by more than 8.5 points in the 3rd quarter of the Oklahoma City vs Portland Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
23%
Median YES price across 78 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
46% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York wins 3Q by over 16.5 points · New York wins by over 16.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 26 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Portland wins 3Q by over 8.5 points · Portland wins by over 8.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins 3Q by over 6.5 points · Portland wins by over 6.5 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins 3Q by over 4.5 points · Portland wins by over 4.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins 3Q by over 2.5 points · Portland wins by over 2.5 points | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins 3Q by over 1.5 points · Portland wins by over 1.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins 3Q by over 10.5 points · Portland wins by over 10.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 3Q by over 7.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 7.5 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 3Q by over 5.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 5.5 points | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 3Q by over 3.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 3.5 points | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 3Q by over 1.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 1.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 3Q by over 13.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 13.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 3Q by over 11.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 11.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins 3Q by over 9.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 9.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins 3Q by over 8.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 8.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins 3Q by over 6.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 6.5 points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins 3Q by over 4.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 4.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins 3Q by over 2.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 2.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins 3Q by over 1.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 1.5 points | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins 3Q by over 10.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 10.5 points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 3Q by over 7.5 points · Orlando wins by over 7.5 points | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 3Q by over 5.5 points · Orlando wins by over 5.5 points | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 3Q by over 3.5 points · Orlando wins by over 3.5 points | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 3Q by over 1.5 points · Orlando wins by over 1.5 points | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 3Q by over 13.5 points · Orlando wins by over 13.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 3Q by over 11.5 points · Orlando wins by over 11.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins 3Q by over 9.5 points · Orlando wins by over 9.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Utah wins 3Q by over 7.5 points · Utah wins by over 7.5 points | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins 3Q by over 5.5 points · Utah wins by over 5.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins 3Q by over 3.5 points · Utah wins by over 3.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins 3Q by over 1.5 points · Utah wins by over 1.5 points | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Utah wins 3Q by over 9.5 points · Utah wins by over 9.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 3Q by over 8.5 points · Miami wins by over 8.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 3Q by over 6.5 points · Miami wins by over 6.5 points | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 3Q by over 4.5 points · Miami wins by over 4.5 points | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 3Q by over 2.5 points · Miami wins by over 2.5 points | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 3Q by over 1.5 points · Miami wins by over 1.5 points | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 3Q by over 14.5 points · Miami wins by over 14.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 3Q by over 12.5 points · Miami wins by over 12.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Miami wins 3Q by over 10.5 points · Miami wins by over 10.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 78 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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