Markets › Kalshi › Sports
NBA Player Threes on Kalshi
If Yaxel Lendeborg records 6+ made three-pointers in the New Orleans vs Golden State Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 97 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
39% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry: 5+ threes · Stephen Curry: 5+ | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 23,012 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 4+ threes · Stephen Curry: 4+ | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 12,711 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 2+ threes · Brandin Podziemski: 2+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,641 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 3+ threes · Stephen Curry: 3+ | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 6,982 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Saddiq Bey: 2+ threes · Saddiq Bey: 2+ | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 6,595 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 3+ threes · Brandin Podziemski: 3+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,231 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Karlo Matković: 2+ threes · Karlo Matković: 2+ | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 4,756 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 4+ threes · Yaxel Lendeborg: 4+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,356 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Georges Niang: 2+ threes · Georges Niang: 2+ | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 3,819 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 3+ threes · Yaxel Lendeborg: 3+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,597 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 6+ threes · Stephen Curry: 6+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 3,423 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Saddiq Bey: 1+ threes · Saddiq Bey: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,419 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Karlo Matković: 1+ threes · Karlo Matković: 1+ | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 3,163 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stephen Curry: 7+ threes · Stephen Curry: 7+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,822 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Dejounte Murray: 4+ threes · Dejounte Murray: 4+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,369 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Jeremiah Fears: 2+ threes · Jeremiah Fears: 2+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 2,100 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Yaxel Lendeborg: 5+ threes · Yaxel Lendeborg: 5+ | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 2,052 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Herbert Jones: 1+ threes · Herbert Jones: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,992 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Saddiq Bey: 3+ threes · Saddiq Bey: 3+ | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 1,789 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Anthony Melton: 2+ threes · De'Anthony Melton: 2+ | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 1,488 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Dejounte Murray: 2+ threes · Dejounte Murray: 2+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,376 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Dejounte Murray: 3+ threes · Dejounte Murray: 3+ | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,365 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Georges Niang: 5+ threes · Georges Niang: 5+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,322 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Karlo Matković: 4+ threes · Karlo Matković: 4+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,057 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Anthony Melton: 4+ threes · De'Anthony Melton: 4+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 1,043 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Anthony Melton: 5+ threes · De'Anthony Melton: 5+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 919 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 4+ threes · Brandin Podziemski: 4+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 892 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandin Podziemski: 5+ threes · Brandin Podziemski: 5+ | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 802 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Jeremiah Fears: 4+ threes · Jeremiah Fears: 4+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 750 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Jaylen Brown: 2+ threes · Jaylen Brown: 2+ | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 705 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Bennedict Mathurin: 1+ threes · Bennedict Mathurin: 1+ | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 600 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Jeremiah Fears: 3+ threes · Jeremiah Fears: 3+ | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 584 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Karlo Matković: 3+ threes · Karlo Matković: 3+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 567 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Anthony Melton: 3+ threes · De'Anthony Melton: 3+ | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 553 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandon Williams: 1+ threes · Brandon Williams: 1+ | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 538 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Dejounte Murray: 1+ threes · Dejounte Murray: 1+ | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 500 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brandon Williams: 3+ threes · Brandon Williams: 3+ | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 491 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Saddiq Bey: 5+ threes · Saddiq Bey: 5+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 474 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| De'Anthony Melton: 1+ threes · De'Anthony Melton: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 371 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Saddiq Bey: 4+ threes · Saddiq Bey: 4+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 349 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 97 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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