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NBA 2nd Half Total on Kalshi
If over 98.5 total points are scored in the 2nd half (including overtime) of the Oklahoma City vs Portland Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
51%
Median YES price across 114 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd Half: Over 116.5 points scored · Over 116.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 98.5 points scored · Over 98.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 134.5 points scored · Over 134.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 132.5 points scored · Over 132.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 130.5 points scored · Over 130.5 points | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 128.5 points scored · Over 128.5 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 126.5 points scored · Over 126.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 124.5 points scored · Over 124.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 122.5 points scored · Over 122.5 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 120.5 points scored · Over 120.5 points | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 118.5 points scored · Over 118.5 points | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 116.5 points scored · Over 116.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 114.5 points scored · Over 114.5 points | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 112.5 points scored · Over 112.5 points | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 110.5 points scored · Over 110.5 points | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 108.5 points scored · Over 108.5 points | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 106.5 points scored · Over 106.5 points | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 104.5 points scored · Over 104.5 points | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 102.5 points scored · Over 102.5 points | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 100.5 points scored · Over 100.5 points | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 97.5 points scored · Over 97.5 points | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 95.5 points scored · Over 95.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 93.5 points scored · Over 93.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 91.5 points scored · Over 91.5 points | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 89.5 points scored · Over 89.5 points | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 125.5 points scored · Over 125.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 123.5 points scored · Over 123.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 121.5 points scored · Over 121.5 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 119.5 points scored · Over 119.5 points | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 117.5 points scored · Over 117.5 points | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 115.5 points scored · Over 115.5 points | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 113.5 points scored · Over 113.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 111.5 points scored · Over 111.5 points | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 109.5 points scored · Over 109.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 107.5 points scored · Over 107.5 points | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 105.5 points scored · Over 105.5 points | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 103.5 points scored · Over 103.5 points | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 101.5 points scored · Over 101.5 points | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 99.5 points scored · Over 99.5 points | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| 2nd Half: Over 97.5 points scored · Over 97.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 114 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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