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NBA 1st Half Spread on Kalshi
If Portland wins by more than 8.5 points in the 1st half of the Oklahoma City vs Portland Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 114 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
39% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston wins the 1st half by over 1.5 points · Boston wins by over 1.5 points | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 460 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Phoenix wins the 1st half by over 2.5 points · Phoenix wins by over 2.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 378 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| New York wins the 1st half by over 8.5 points · New York wins by over 8.5 points | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 190 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins the 1st half by over 1.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 points | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 119 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| New York wins the 1st half by over 10.5 points · New York wins by over 10.5 points | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 102 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Los Angeles C wins the 1st half by over 3.5 points · Los Angeles C wins by over 3.5 points | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 70 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st half by over 1.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 1.5 points | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 60 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins the 1st half by over 2.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 2.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 58 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins the 1st half by over 12.5 points · Orlando wins by over 12.5 points | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 47 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins the 1st half by over 2.5 points · Orlando wins by over 2.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 43 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins the 1st half by over 4.5 points · Philadelphia wins by over 4.5 points | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 13 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st half by over 8.5 points · Portland wins by over 8.5 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st half by over 6.5 points · Portland wins by over 6.5 points | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st half by over 4.5 points · Portland wins by over 4.5 points | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st half by over 2.5 points · Portland wins by over 2.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st half by over 1.5 points · Portland wins by over 1.5 points | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st half by over 16.5 points · Portland wins by over 16.5 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st half by over 14.5 points · Portland wins by over 14.5 points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st half by over 12.5 points · Portland wins by over 12.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st half by over 10.5 points · Portland wins by over 10.5 points | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st half by over 7.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 7.5 points | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st half by over 5.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 5.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st half by over 3.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 3.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st half by over 19.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 19.5 points | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st half by over 17.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 17.5 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st half by over 15.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 15.5 points | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st half by over 13.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 13.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st half by over 11.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 11.5 points | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st half by over 9.5 points · Oklahoma City wins by over 9.5 points | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins the 1st half by over 7.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 7.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins the 1st half by over 5.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 5.5 points | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins the 1st half by over 3.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 3.5 points | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins the 1st half by over 1.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 1.5 points | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins the 1st half by over 15.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 15.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins the 1st half by over 13.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 13.5 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins the 1st half by over 11.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 11.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Sacramento wins the 1st half by over 9.5 points · Sacramento wins by over 9.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins the 1st half by over 8.5 points · Orlando wins by over 8.5 points | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins the 1st half by over 6.5 points · Orlando wins by over 6.5 points | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins the 1st half by over 4.5 points · Orlando wins by over 4.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 114 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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