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NBA 1st Half Winner on Kalshi
If neither team wins the 1st half of the Oklahoma City vs Portland Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
35%
Median YES price across 51 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
70% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 35¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.28 | 36.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State wins the 1st half · Golden State | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 31,582 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins the 1st half · New Orleans | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15,802 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,559 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins the 1st half · Philadelphia | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 412 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Milwaukee wins the 1st half · Milwaukee | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 86 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 22 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 5 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Boston wins the 1st half · Boston | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 4 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| New York wins the 1st half · New York | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 4 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Portland wins the 1st half · Portland | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Oklahoma City wins the 1st half · Oklahoma City | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Houston wins the 1st half · Houston | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Golden State wins the 1st half · Golden State | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Utah wins the 1st half · Utah | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Orlando wins the 1st half · Orlando | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| New Orleans wins the 1st half · New Orleans | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Brooklyn wins the 1st half · Brooklyn | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Milwaukee wins the 1st half · Milwaukee | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles L wins the 1st half · Los Angeles L | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Memphis wins the 1st half · Memphis | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Denver wins the 1st half · Denver | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| San Antonio wins the 1st half · San Antonio | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Chicago wins the 1st half · Chicago | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Toronto wins the 1st half · Toronto | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Boston wins the 1st half · Boston | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Cleveland wins the 1st half · Cleveland | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Washington wins the 1st half · Washington | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Indiana wins the 1st half · Indiana | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Tie in the 1st half · Tie | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 51 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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