Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
Natural Gas Daily on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST is above 3.445 USD/MMBtu, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - NATGAS.
Market says (typical open contract)
95%
Median YES price across 120 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 95¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $0.18 | 95.3% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.075 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.075 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 455 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.395 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.395 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 438 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.080 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.080 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 340 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.180 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.180 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 332 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.215 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.215 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 318 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.190 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.190 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 306 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.295 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.295 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 265 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.040 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.040 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 253 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.025 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.025 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 226 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.005 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.005 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 215 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 215 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.970 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.970 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 215 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.950 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.950 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 215 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.910 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.910 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 215 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 2.855 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $2.855 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 210 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.360 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.360 | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 143 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.090 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.090 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 140 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.125 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.125 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 125 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.370 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.370 | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 113 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.345 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.345 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 107 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.365 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.365 | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 105 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.065 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.065 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 97 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.105 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.105 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 90 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.070 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.070 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 90 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.085 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.085 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 80 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.240 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.240 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 73 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.110 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.110 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 65 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.115 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.115 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 60 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.350 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.350 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 52 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.100 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.100 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 51 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.095 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.095 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 50 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.210 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.210 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 48 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.385 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.385 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 41 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.225 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.225 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 40 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.170 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.170 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 40 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.130 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.130 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 30 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.120 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.120 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 30 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.380 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.380 | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 25 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.160 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.160 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 25 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
| Will the natural gas close price be above 3.145 USD/MMBtu on November 10, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST? · Above $3.145 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 25 | Nov 10, 22:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 120 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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