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Vail Resorts KPI on Kalshi
If Vail Resorts reports Above 800000 skier visits in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
12%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
23% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.08 | 12.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Vail Resorts report Above 650,000 skier visits in Q1 2027? · Above 650,000 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 2,892 | Apr 08, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Vail Resorts report Above 500,000 skier visits in Q1 2027? · Above 500,000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 2,851 | Apr 08, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Vail Resorts report Above 550,000 skier visits in Q1 2027? · Above 550,000 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 2,527 | Apr 08, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Vail Resorts report Above 450,000 skier visits in Q1 2027? · Above 450,000 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 2,457 | Apr 08, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Vail Resorts report Above 600,000 skier visits in Q1 2027? · Above 600,000 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 996 | Apr 08, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Vail Resorts report Above 400,000 skier visits in Q1 2027? · Above 400,000 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 547 | Apr 08, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Vail Resorts report Above 750,000 skier visits in Q1 2027? · Above 750,000 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 400 | Apr 08, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Vail Resorts report Above 700,000 skier visits in Q1 2027? · Above 700,000 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 400 | Apr 08, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Vail Resorts report Above 800,000 skier visits in Q1 2027? · Above 800,000 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 296 | Apr 08, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Vail Resorts report Above 1,000,000 skier visits in Q1 2027? · Above 1,000,000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 280 | Apr 08, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.