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who will be cast in movie on Kalshi
If Theo James is cast in the upcoming live-action DC Universe (DCU) film The Brave and the Bold before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico, The Hollywood Reporter.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 106 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
13% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Joe Keery be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Joe Keery | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 8,450 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charles Melton be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Charles Melton | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 7,014 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hugh Jackman be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Hugh Jackman | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 6,193 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Patrick Stewart be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Patrick Stewart | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 4,344 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colman Domingo be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Colman Domingo | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 4,033 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James McAvoy be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · James McAvoy | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 3,541 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Austin Butler be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Austin Butler | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 3,400 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hunter Schafer be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Hunter Schafer | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 2,586 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pedro Pascal be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Pedro Pascal | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 2,509 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sophie Turner be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Sophie Turner | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 2,305 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Glen Powell be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Glen Powell | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 2,051 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Evan Peters be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Evan Peters | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,855 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ayo Edebiri be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Ayo Edebiri | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,799 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Will Poulter be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Will Poulter | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,796 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicholas Hoult be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Nicholas Hoult | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 1,599 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Margaret Qualley be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Margaret Qualley | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 1,077 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacob Elordi be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Jacob Elordi | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 978 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tye Sheridan be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Tye Sheridan | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 956 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Denzel Washington be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Denzel Washington | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 809 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Fassbender be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Michael Fassbender | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 749 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Daniel Radcliffe be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Daniel Radcliffe | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 719 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Margot Robbie be cast in The next feature-length film in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise to be released by Walt Disney Studios after Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)? · Margot Robbie | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 658 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Julia Butters be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Julia Butters | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 655 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Paul Mescal be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Paul Mescal | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 456 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ian McKellen be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Ian McKellen | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 353 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jesse Plemons be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Jesse Plemons | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 345 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kelsey Grammer be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Kelsey Grammer | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 251 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lady Gaga be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Lady Gaga | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 237 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Harris Dickinson be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Harris Dickinson | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 226 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Keery be cast in Netflix's film adaptation of Emily Henry's Happy Place? · Joe Keery | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 193 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Orlando Bloom be cast in The next feature-length film in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise to be released by Walt Disney Studios after Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)? · Orlando Bloom | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 165 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drew Starkey be cast in the next official X-Men motion picture produced by Marvel Studios? · Drew Starkey | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 122 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Paul Dano be cast in The Batman Part II? · Paul Dano | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 122 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rita Moreno be cast in Netflix's film adaptation of The Seven Husbands of Evelyn Hugo? · Rita Moreno | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 100 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gugu Mbatha-Raw be cast in Netflix's film adaptation of The Seven Husbands of Evelyn Hugo? · Gugu Mbatha-Raw | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 100 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ayo Edebiri be cast in Netflix's film adaptation of The Seven Husbands of Evelyn Hugo? · Ayo Edebiri | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 100 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Barry Keoghan be cast in The Batman Part II? · Barry Keoghan | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 97 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cristin Milioti be cast in The Batman Part II? · Cristin Milioti | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 95 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Keira Knightley be cast in The next feature-length film in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise to be released by Walt Disney Studios after Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)? · Keira Knightley | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 82 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Geoffrey Rush be cast in The next feature-length film in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise to be released by Walt Disney Studios after Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)? · Geoffrey Rush | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 62 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 106 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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