Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology
Model hitting thresholds on Kalshi
If a model by Alibaba is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control).
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? · Claude | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 90,333 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gemini be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? · Gemini | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 59,150 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? · ChatGPT | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 46,570 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grok be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? · Grok | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 23,490 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Other be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? · Other | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,523 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Qwen be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? · Qwen | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,833 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kimi be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? · Kimi | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,565 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ernie be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena? · Ernie | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,882 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.