Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Port of Mobile container volume on Kalshi
If Port of Mobile container throughput for calendar year 2026 is above 425,000 TEUs, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
72%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
57% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 71¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $1.02 | 72.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Port of Mobile container throughput for 2026 be above 425,000 TEUs? · Above 425,000 TEUs | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 20,124 | Jan 29, 21:59 UTC |
| Will Port of Mobile container throughput for 2026 be above 600,000 TEUs? · Above 600,000 TEUs | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 17,963 | Jan 29, 21:59 UTC |
| Will Port of Mobile container throughput for 2026 be above 450,000 TEUs? · Above 450,000 TEUs | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 14,091 | Jan 29, 21:59 UTC |
| Will Port of Mobile container throughput for 2026 be above 525,000 TEUs? · Above 525,000 TEUs | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 13,495 | Jan 29, 21:59 UTC |
| Will Port of Mobile container throughput for 2026 be above 575,000 TEUs? · Above 575,000 TEUs | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 10,295 | Jan 29, 21:59 UTC |
| Will Port of Mobile container throughput for 2026 be above 475,000 TEUs? · Above 475,000 TEUs | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 7,524 | Jan 29, 21:59 UTC |
| Will Port of Mobile container throughput for 2026 be above 500,000 TEUs? · Above 500,000 TEUs | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 7,052 | Jan 29, 21:59 UTC |
| Will Port of Mobile container throughput for 2026 be above 550,000 TEUs? · Above 550,000 TEUs | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 3,196 | Jan 29, 21:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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