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Altria Group Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Altria Group Inc. reports Above 61000000000.0 domestic cigarette shipments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
90%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
21% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 54.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 54.5 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 12,762 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 61 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 61 billion | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 9,750 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 55 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 55 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 7,003 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 60.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 60.5 billion | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 4,965 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 55.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 55.5 billion | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 4,363 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 57 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 57 billion | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 3,746 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 60 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 60 billion | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,656 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 58.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 58.5 billion | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 1,568 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 59.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 59.5 billion | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 1,534 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 59 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 59 billion | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,503 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 58 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 58 billion | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 851 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 57.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 57.5 billion | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 681 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 56.5 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 56.5 billion | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 672 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Altria Group Inc. report Above 56 billion domestic cigarette shipments in 2026? · Above 56 billion | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 454 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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