What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.77.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 51% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

MLS Leader on Kalshi

If Tai Baribo leads MLS in goals for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox Sports, Sky Sports, NBC Sports, ESPN, CBS Sports.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
49¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.79	50.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Robert Lewandowski lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Robert Lewandowski	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,684	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Lionel Messi lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Lionel Messi	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,415	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Petar Musa lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Petar Musa	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,231	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Denis Bouanga lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Denis Bouanga	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	10	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Tai Baribo lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Tai Baribo	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Sam Surridge lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Sam Surridge	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Preston Judd lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Preston Judd	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Nicolas Fernandez lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Nicolas Fernandez	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Martin Ojeda lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Martin Ojeda	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Marcus Ingvartsen lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Marcus Ingvartsen	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Milan Iloski lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Milan Iloski	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Luis Suarez lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Luis Suarez	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Kevin Denkey lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Kevin Denkey	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Hugo Cuypers lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Hugo Cuypers	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Evander lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Evander	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Brian White lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Brian White	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC
Will Antoine Griezmann lead MLS in goals for the 2026 season? · Antoine Griezmann	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 15, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.