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Pro Baseball Games Played in a Season on Kalshi
If the number of MLB regular season games played is above 600 games in the 2027 MLB regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
60%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
80% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 60¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.40 | 61.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no games be played in the 2027 Pro Baseball regular season? · No games | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 367,352 | Nov 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will more than 600 games be played in the 2027 Pro Baseball regular season? · More than 600 games | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 240,294 | Nov 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will more than 2,425 games be played in the 2027 Pro Baseball regular season? · More than 2,425 games | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 104,459 | Nov 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will more than 1,930 games be played in the 2027 Pro Baseball regular season? · More than 1,930 games | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 92,462 | Nov 07, 14:00 UTC |
| Will more than 1,215 games be played in the 2027 Pro Baseball regular season? · More than 1,215 games | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 35,820 | Nov 07, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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