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Pro Baseball American League Manager of the Year on Kalshi
If Chad Tracy wins the Pro Baseball American League Manager of the Year in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Cash win AL MOTY? · Kevin Cash | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 300,286 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Will Venable win AL MOTY? · Will Venable | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 240,738 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chad Tracy win AL MOTY? · Chad Tracy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 65,890 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will A.J. Hinch win AL MOTY? · A.J. Hinch | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 45,030 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Derek Shelton win AL MOTY? · Derek Shelton | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 41,704 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Aaron Boone win AL MOTY? · Aaron Boone | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 34,324 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Espada win AL MOTY? · Joe Espada | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 30,549 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Skip Schumaker win AL MOTY? · Skip Schumaker | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 29,536 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Stephen Vogt win AL MOTY? · Stephen Vogt | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 25,897 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kurt Suzuki win AL MOTY? · Kurt Suzuki | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 18,942 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dan Wilson win AL MOTY? · Dan Wilson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15,494 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mark Kotsay win AL MOTY? · Mark Kotsay | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,666 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Craig Albernaz win AL MOTY? · Craig Albernaz | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,328 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie/Co-Winners win AL MOTY? · Tie/Co-Winners | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,482 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Schneider win AL MOTY? · John Schneider | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,187 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matt Quatraro win AL MOTY? · Matt Quatraro | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,429 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alex Cora win AL MOTY? · Alex Cora | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,362 | Dec 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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