Markets › Kalshi › Elections
House Minority Leader (120th Congress) on Kalshi
If Brandon Gill wins the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: House Republican Conference, Associated Press, House Democratic Caucus, Reuters.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jim Jordan win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Jim Jordan | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 33,658 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Steve Scalise win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Steve Scalise | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 23,016 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Hakeem Jeffries | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 18,448 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will August Pfluger win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · August Pfluger | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,804 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Katherine Clark win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Katherine Clark | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,246 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tom Emmer win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Tom Emmer | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 11,265 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pete Aguilar win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Pete Aguilar | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,016 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ted Lieu win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Ted Lieu | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,016 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joe Neguse win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Joe Neguse | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,016 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,418 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Johnson win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Mike Johnson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,073 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lisa McClain win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Lisa McClain | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,780 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Lawler win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Mike Lawler | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,033 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jay Obernolte win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Jay Obernolte | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,892 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Hern win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Kevin Hern | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,097 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brandon Gill win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Brandon Gill | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 500 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Richard Hudson win the House Minority Leader election for the 120th Congress? · Richard Hudson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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