What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 16¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.92.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 17% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 16%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

Next Millennium Prize Problem on Kalshi

If Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem is the first Millennium Prize Problem solved after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Guardian, Science, National Academy of Sciences of the United States, Financial Times, Scientific American, Associated Press, the Clay Mathematics Institute, Nature, arXiv preprint repository operated by Cornell University, Royal Society, the American Mathematical Society, the International Mathematical Union, The Washington Post, the New York Times, Max Planck Society, American Association for the Advancement of Science, British Broadcasting Corporation, Quanta Magazine, The Wall Street Journal, French Academy of Sciences, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, The Economist.

Market says (typical open contract)

16%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

33% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
17¢ (now)	1.0¢	$2.91	18.0%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will P vs NP be solved next before 2045? · P versus NP Problem	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	3,596	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Hodge be solved next before 2045? · Hodge Conjecture	33¢	33%	1.5¢	—	66%	2,785	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Yang–Mills be solved next before 2045? · Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem	38¢	38%	1.7¢	—	77%	936	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be solved next before 2045? · Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	719	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Riemann be solved next before 2045? · Riemann Hypothesis	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	356	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.