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Meta ordered to pay in state attorneys general child safety case on Kalshi

If the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California orders Meta Platforms, Inc. to pay the plaintiff States $10 billion or more in total monetary relief in the state attorney general actions in In re Social Media Adolescent Addiction/Personal Injury Products Liability Litigation, No. 4:22-md-03047 before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: CourtListener, U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California.

Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
39% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
20¢ (now)1.1¢$2.8021.1%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California rule orders Meta Platforms, Inc. to pay the plaintiff States $10 billion or more in total monetary relief? · Before Jul 1, 202720¢20%1.1¢—39%615Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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