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FTC antitrust case against Meta revived on appeal on Kalshi

If the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit reverses or vacates, in whole or in part, the district court's November 18, 2025 judgment for Meta, such that the FTC's monopolization claims may proceed in Federal Trade Commission v. Meta Platforms, Inc., No. 26-5028, on appeal from No. 20-cv-3590 (D.D.C.) before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, PACER.

Market says (typical open contract)
55%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
89% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
55¢ (now)1.7¢$1.5756.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
FTC antitrust case against Meta revived on appeal? · Before 202955¢55%1.7¢—89%620Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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