What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Meta KPI on Kalshi

If Meta Platforms, Inc. reports Above 3520000000 family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 39 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.58 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.58 billion	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	3,384	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 14% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 14%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	1,337	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 18% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 18%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	900	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 67000 employee headcount at quarter end in Q1 2027? · Above 67000	47¢	47%	1.7¢	—	94%	726	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.72 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.72 billion	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	73%	327	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 4% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 4%	73¢	73%	1.4¢	—	55%	299	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 6% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 6%	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	95%	290	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 12% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 12%	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	133	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 8% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 8%	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	57%	108	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 10% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 10%	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	31%	80	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.6 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.6 billion	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	80	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 65000 employee headcount at quarter end in Q1 2027? · Above 65000	77¢	77%	1.2¢	—	46%	2	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.52 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.52 billion	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.54 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.54 billion	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.56 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.56 billion	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 26% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 26%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 24% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 24%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 22% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 22%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 20% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 20%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 2% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 2%	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 16% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 16%	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 0% worldwide ad impressions growth (yoy) in Q1 2027? · Above 0%	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 69000 employee headcount at quarter end in Q1 2027? · Above 69000	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 66500 employee headcount at quarter end in Q1 2027? · Above 66500	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	84%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 66000 employee headcount at quarter end in Q1 2027? · Above 66000	67¢	67%	1.5¢	—	66%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 65500 employee headcount at quarter end in Q1 2027? · Above 65500	73¢	73%	1.4¢	—	54%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 64500 employee headcount at quarter end in Q1 2027? · Above 64500	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	40%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 64000 employee headcount at quarter end in Q1 2027? · Above 64000	83¢	83%	1.0¢	—	34%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 63500 employee headcount at quarter end in Q1 2027? · Above 63500	86¢	86%	0.8¢	—	28%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 63000 employee headcount at quarter end in Q1 2027? · Above 63000	89¢	89%	0.7¢	—	22%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 61000 employee headcount at quarter end in Q1 2027? · Above 61000	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.78 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.78 billion	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.76 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.76 billion	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.74 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.74 billion	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.7 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.7 billion	51¢	51%	1.7¢	—	98%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.68 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.68 billion	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	68%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.66 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.66 billion	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	44%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.64 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.64 billion	86¢	86%	0.8¢	—	28%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report Above 3.62 billion family daily active people (march average) in Q1 2027? · Above 3.62 billion	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	0	Aug 26, 04:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.