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Maine: Pingree vs. Jackson margin on Kalshi
If Hannah Pingree's margin in the Maine governor election minus Troy Jackson's margin in the Maine U.S. Senate election is between 8 and 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Maine Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
13%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
26% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.04 | 13.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hannah Pingree's governor margin minus Troy Jackson's Senate margin be between 8 and 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Pingree by 8-12 | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 6,082 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Hannah Pingree's governor margin minus Troy Jackson's Senate margin be between 0 and 4 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Pingree by 0-4 | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 3,453 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Troy Jackson's Senate margin minus Hannah Pingree's governor margin be above 0 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Jackson by 0+ | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,666 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Hannah Pingree's governor margin minus Troy Jackson's Senate margin be between 12 and 16 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Pingree by 12-16 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 2,577 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Hannah Pingree's governor margin minus Troy Jackson's Senate margin be between 4 and 8 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Pingree by 4-8 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 944 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Hannah Pingree's governor margin minus Troy Jackson's Senate margin be at least 20 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Pingree by 20+ | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 839 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Hannah Pingree's governor margin minus Troy Jackson's Senate margin be between 16 and 20 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Pingree by 16-20 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 465 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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