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Mercado Libre KPI on Kalshi
If MercadoLibre, Inc. reports Above 95000000000 gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
47%
Median YES price across 33 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
94% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.6 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.6 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 17,084 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 13,270 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.5 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.5 billion | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 12,705 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.45 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.45 billion | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 10,825 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.15 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.15 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 10,205 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.4 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.4 billion | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 9,859 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.7 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.7 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,692 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.55 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.55 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,429 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.65 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.65 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,975 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.35 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.35 billion | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 5,513 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.2 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.2 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,101 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.05 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.05 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 4,023 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.3 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.3 billion | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,499 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.25 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.25 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 3,149 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre Inc. report Above 3.1 billion items sold in 2026? · Above 3.1 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,775 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $95 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $95 billion | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $94 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $94 billion | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $93 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $93 billion | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $92 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $92 billion | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $91 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $91 billion | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $90 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $90 billion | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $89 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $89 billion | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $88 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $88 billion | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above $87 billion gross merchandise volume in fiscal 2026? · Above $87 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 99 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 99 million | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 98 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 98 million | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 97 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 97 million | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 96 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 96 million | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 104 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 104 million | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 103 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 103 million | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 102 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 102 million | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 101 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 101 million | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
| Will MercadoLibre, Inc. report Above 100 million fintech monthly active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 100 million | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | May 24, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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