What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 26¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.57.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 28% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 26%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

Who will go on TBPN this year? on Kalshi

If Satya Nadella is on TBPN after April 03,2026 at 10:00AM and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: production company's official channels, Apple Podcasts, The Source Agencies are, official website or platform of media, media, etc, media's official social media accounts, HBO Max, in hierarchical order, Spotify, official website or platform where media is distributed (Netflix.

Market says (typical open contract)

26%

Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

53% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
27¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.56	28.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Sam Altman be on TBPN before 2027? · Sam Altman	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	3%	2,025	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Dario Amodei be on TBPN before 2027? · Dario Amodei	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	522	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Mark Zuckerberg be on TBPN before 2027? · Mark Zuckerberg	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	463	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Marc Andreessen be on TBPN before 2027? · Marc Andreessen	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	73%	74	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Mark Cuban be on TBPN before 2027? · Mark Cuban	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	63%	6	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Jamie Dimon be on TBPN before 2027? · Jamie Dimon	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	4	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Satya Nadella be on TBPN before 2027? · Satya Nadella	26¢	26%	1.4¢	—	53%	0	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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